Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jun 2003
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W32)
produced an M4/1n event at 09/1128 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. The SOHO/LASCO imagery also observed a CME which
accompanied this event. The CME appears to be directed toward the
northwest and not earthbound. Region 375 continues to become more
magnetically complex and maintains its delta magnetic configuration.
This region has been responsible for the majority of events of this
period. However, Region 380 (S14E42) produced several C-class
events and has increased in both white light area and sunspot count
since yesterday. New Region 381 (S18E19) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing a
major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. This activity is
a result of continued coronal hole effects and the elevated solar
wind speeds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 10 and 11 June. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 12 June as solar wind speeds should
begin to decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
- Class M 70/70/70
- Class X 20/20/20
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Jun 158
- Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 155/155/150
- 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 021/027
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 020/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 020/025-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/30/20
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/35/30
- Minor storm 30/30/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
