Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 10 July. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are expected for 11-12 July. An increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Jul 066
• Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/010-015/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/30
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10