Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S07E54) has produced two C-class flares and numerous B-class flares. Region 963 grew slowly in size and complexity during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a D-type group with 12 spots and a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 963.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled with a chance for active periods late on day one (10 Jun) continuing through day two (11 Jun) in response to a recurrent coronal hole. Conditions should decline to quiet to unsettled on day three (12 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Jul 077
- Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 077/077/077
- 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/010-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/40/30
- Minor storm 10/20/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
- B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/45/35
- Minor storm 15/25/20
- Major-severe storm 05/10/10
