Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
July 10, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S07E54) has produced two C-class flares and numerous B-class flares. Region 963 grew slowly in size and complexity during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a D-type group with 12 spots and a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 963.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled with a chance for active periods late on day one (10 Jun) continuing through day two (11 Jun) in response to a recurrent coronal hole. Conditions should decline to quiet to unsettled on day three (12 Jun).

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Jul 077
  • Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 077/077/077
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/010-015/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/40/30
  • Minor storm 10/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

  • B. High Latitudes
  • Active 25/45/35
  • Minor storm 15/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.