Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 10, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jul 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s largest event was a C2
flare at 1027 UTC from Region 786 (N11W31). Region 789 (N18E15)
produced a C1 flare at 2045 UTC. Region 783 (S03W75) grew in size
but has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Active conditions
followed a period of sustained southward Bz. At approximately 0500
UTC, Bz turned south and varied between -5 and -10 nT. At the time
of issue, Bz remains south.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 10 July due to the effects of CME
activity observed on 7 July. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 11 and 12 July.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

  • Class M 50/50/40
  • Class X 15/15/10
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Jul 107
  • Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 105/105/100
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 020/020-015/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/25
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.