Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
July 9, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 642 (S07E39) has
grown slightly in both sunspot count and white light coverage. It
was responsible for the only low level B-class flare in the past 24
hours. Continued CME activity were observed from the SOHO/LASCO
imagery. These appear to be backside events and not directed toward
Earth. A new region was numbered today as Region 643 (S08W07).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for Region 642 to produce a C-class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

  • Class M 05/05/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Jul 087
  • Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 090/100/110
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 001/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 005/008-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/15/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.