Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jul 09 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 642 (S07E39) has
grown slightly in both sunspot count and white light coverage. It
was responsible for the only low level B-class flare in the past 24
hours. Continued CME activity were observed from the SOHO/LASCO
imagery. These appear to be backside events and not directed toward
Earth. A new region was numbered today as Region 643 (S08W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for Region 642 to produce a C-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
- Class M 05/05/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Jul 087
- Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 090/100/110
- 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 001/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 005/008-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/20
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/30
- Minor storm 10/10/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
