Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jul 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
July 9, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 400 (N05W37)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.0 at 08/2135Z, and a C2.4/Sf at
09/1446Z. Region 397 (N14W76) produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C5.8/Sf at 09/1637Z. No significant change was
observed in any active region except for Region 402, which grew in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with isolated chance of M-class flares from Regions 397, 400, or
402.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active to minor
storm conditions possible on days two and three due to elevated
solar wind speeds as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective
position.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 45/45/40
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 126
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 135/135/125
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 010/010-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/35
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/50/50
Minor storm 05/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.