Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jan 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N30E35) produced a
C1.0 flare at 1503Z. Several B-class flares were observed prior to
the C-flare. Region 1040 has grown during the past 24 hours and is a
10-spot Cri-beta group with an area of approximately 70 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first two days (10-11 January). Quiet,
with isolated unsettled levels, are expected on day three (12
January) as a coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 082
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 084/086/088
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 005/005-005/005-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01