Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 933 (S06W56) developed several new spots in the northwestern portion of the spot group. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-flare activity from Region 933.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Jan 092
• Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 090/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01