Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 9, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jan 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 719 (S09E65)
produced an M2.4 at 0854Z on 09 Jan which was accompanied by Type II
radio emissions indicating a CME. Though it is reported as a small
region, it continues to produce several plage fluctuations and point
brightenings. Flare potential for this region remains fair. Region
718 (S06E54) continues to shrink, loosing another sunspot over
yesterday with no other significant activity noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There does, however exist the slight chance that Region 719 will
produce an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
solar wind transient activity of the previous few days has subsided,
with solar wind speeds returning to a nominal 450 km/s. The
geomagnetic field did incur a 12 nT sudden impulse on 09 Jan at
1042Z, but it was of insufficient strength and duration to cause a
storm-level response.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 10 through 12 Jan.
There is a possibility for an isolated period of active or minor
storming levels on 12 Jan due to the grazing impact of a coronal
hole induced high speed solar wind stream. The CME activity
generated by the M-class activity of 09 Jan is strongly directed
away from Earth, and is unlikely to generate elevated activity

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Jan 088
  • Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 090/085/090
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 020/030
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 005/008-005/008-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.