Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 853 (S11W49) produced a B1 flare at 08/2113Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days. Unsettled conditions are expected beginning on the third day due to a coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Feb 075
• Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 075/080/085
• 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01