Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Feb 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 732 (N14E28) produced a
C1.2 flare at 08/2144Z. New Region 734 (S04E71) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period between O600Z and 0900Z. This elevated activity was
due to persistence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at ACE fluctuated around 700 to 750 km/s throughout the
period. Bz was oscillating between +/- 5 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels with a slight chance
for isolated minor storm periods.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Feb 109
• Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 115/115/115
• 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 027/034
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 016/025
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 010/015-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 20/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10