Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Feb 2003
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity dropped to very low levels this period.
Minor B-class subflares from Regions 276 (S12W26) and 280 (S07W13)
were the only notable activity observed. No significant changes were
observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 286 (S11W17)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods. Solar wind conditions were at near nominal levels,
but periods of weak southward IMF Bz yielded the occasional active
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit remain considerably enhanced, reaching high levels again this
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods likely.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Feb 141
- Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 140/140/135
- 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/012-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
