Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S09E26) produced a B9.4 flare during this perioed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low. C-class activity is likely from region 978.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity level will increase from quiet to unsettled early on day 2 as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. There is a slight chance of isolated active periods at high latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Dec 089
• Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 001/000
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 005/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05