Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S04E19) produced a C1 flare at 09/1059Z. Region 930 has further decayed and now has a Beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 100 Mev proton event that began at 07/0115Z ended at 09/0735Z, and had a maximum observed flux of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues but is declining slowly. It had a maximum observed flux so far of 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10 – 12 December). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 11 December.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 95/60/30
• PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Dec 092
• Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 017/025
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01