Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Aug 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
August 11, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. As the recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream approaches, the solar wind data as measured at the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region around 08/2300Z. The velocity, density, and temperature began to rise, the Bt averaged around +20 nT and the Bz fluctuated between +18 nT to -12 nT. Solar wind speeds continue to slowly rise and are averaging around 620 km/s at the time of this posting.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions possible for day one (10 August). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August), with mostly quiet conditions expected for day three (12 August) as the effects of the coronal hole decrease.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Aug 066
  • Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 066/066/066
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 003/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/10/05
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/05
  • Minor storm 05/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.