Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active on 10 August in response to a recurrent coronal hole. Active conditions are anticipated to persist through 11 August; high-latitude minor storm periods are possible. By 12 August, the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position and conditions are expected to return to quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 09 Aug 067
- Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/025-010/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/20/10
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/15
- Minor storm 30/20/05
- Major-severe storm 15/10/01