Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active on 10 August in response to a recurrent coronal hole. Active conditions are anticipated to persist through 11 August; high-latitude minor storm periods are possible. By 12 August, the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position and conditions are expected to return to quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Aug 067
• Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/025-010/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/20/10
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/15
• Minor storm 30/20/05
• Major-severe storm 15/10/01