Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 9, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Aug 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 904 (S14E76) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between 09/0900 – 1200 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 580 km/s to 460 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Aug 074
  • Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 010/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 008/010-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/15
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.