Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 10, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Aug 09 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The only activity
observed during the last 24 hours were low level B-class flares.
Region 792 (N10W82) and 794 (S13W48) are both indicating a decay
phase. No new sunspot regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

  • Class M 10/10/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Aug 083
  • Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 080/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 006/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.