Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 865 has rotated around the west limb. All other regions have remained quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, with major storming at high latitudes. The geomagnetic storm was the result of a co-rotating interaction region preceding the high speed stream from a coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm conditions on 10 April. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 11 – 12 April.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Apr 089
• Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 085/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 020/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 015/015-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 15/05/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/20
• Minor storm 25/10/05
• Major-severe storm 15/05/01