Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Apr 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
April 9, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 09 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 751 (S07W74)
produced several B-class flares during the period. This region has
grown in both sunspot count and white light area coverage and is now
a Dai beta spot group. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed two CME’s
today off the SW limb. The first was around 09/0826 UTC and the
second was at 09/1350 UTC. Both appear to be from a backside event.
No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled for 10-12 April.
Periods of active conditions are possible on 11-12 April due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 09 Apr 088
  • Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 002/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 008/010-010/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/35
  • Minor storm 10/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.