Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 08 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A weak B-level event was
seen in GOES x-rays at approximately 1701Z, which was associated
with a brightening of plage region 1025(N17W73). The solar disk was
otherwise void of activity and continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (9-11 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (9 September), due to
a recurrent coronal high speed stream. On day two and day three
(10-11 September), the geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 069
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 003/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01