Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Sep 2003

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Type III
radio sweeps comprised most of today’s activity. Region 456
(S09E08) is the most complex region on the disk and was newly
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Isolated low level C-class flares are possible from
Region 456.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated minor
storm periods through days one and two. Activity on day two may be
further enhanced due to a possible transient passage resulting from
yesterday’s long-duration C5 flare. Day three should see a return
to predominantly unsettled conditions as the recurrent coronal hole
wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Sep 099
• Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 095/095/100
• 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 003/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/009
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 015/020-020/025-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/45/30
• Minor storm 15/20/10
• Major-severe storm 05/10/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/50/40
• Minor storm 20/25/20
• Major-severe storm 10/15/10