Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 680 (N14W83)
was newly numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. There’s a small
chance for isolated periods of active levels beginning on 11 Oct due
to the influence of a recurrent high-speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct

• Class M 10/10/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Oct 091
• Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 095/095/090
• 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/007-005/007-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 15/15/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05