Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Oct 2003

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
471 (S08W31) was responsible for all of today’s recorded activity
and produced several B and C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
The largest was a C3/Sf that occurred at 07/2357 UTC. White light
showed a slight, yet steady increase in penumbral coverage during
the period. This region continues to exhibit a gamma structure near
the center of the spot cluster. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels. Region 471 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is in the waning stage.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the majority of
the period. Day three may see elevated conditions due to a solar
sector boundary crossing.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct

• Class M 20/20/20
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Oct 113
• Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 110/105/105
• 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 011/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 008/010-006/010-010/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01