Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, due to a weak
recurrent coronal high-speed stream. Wind speeds increased from 260
km/s to 451 km/s at 08/1934Z. The interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) showed an enhancement of total field of 11 nT, while the
southward component reached -9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with a chance for an isolated unsettled period
early in the period, on day one (09 November). Quiet levels are
expected for days two and three (09-11 November).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 071
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01