Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 923 (S05E71) produced multiple B-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a B6 at 08/1233Z. The large leader spot in this new sunspot group is now visible. Region 921 (S06W66) produced a couple of low-level B-class flares today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There remains a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 923.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with possible minor storm periods on 09-10 November as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 11 November.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

• Class M 20/20/20
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Nov 086
• Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 000/000
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 015/025-010/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/25/15
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/35/25
• Minor storm 30/20/15
• Major-severe storm 15/10/05