Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 923 (S05E71) produced multiple B-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a B6 at 08/1233Z. The large leader spot in this new sunspot group is now visible. Region 921 (S06W66) produced a couple of low-level B-class flares today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There remains a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with possible minor storm periods on 09-10 November as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 11 November.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Nov 086
- Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 090/090/085
- 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 000/000
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 015/025-010/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/15
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/35/25
- Minor storm 30/20/15
- Major-severe storm 15/10/05