Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Nov 08 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 and 10 November. On 11 November, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective position causing unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

• Class M 05/05/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Nov 079
• Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 080/080/075
• 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 005/008-008/010-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/25
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/35
• Minor storm 10/10/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10