Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 8, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two new regions emerged
today: Region 498 (S03W26) and Region 499 (S17W19). Both of these
regions are small and simple. A 20 degree filament running from
S10W01 to S20W20 faded between 07/2200 UTC and 08/0200 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during
the past 24 hours. A noticeable increase was seen in solar wind
magnetic field and density, beginning around 1000-1200 UTC which
transitioned activity from quiet levels to unsettled levels. The
signatures appear to be consistent with a co-rotating interaction
region which presages the onset of an expected high-speed coronal
hole solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes were
enhanced but below threshold today, and showed a steady downward
trend during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 09-10 November as the
coronal-hole driven disturbance is expected to commence. Mostly
active conditions are expected to prevail on 11 November.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Nov 093
  • Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 095/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 015/015-015/020-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/35
  • Minor storm 20/20/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 20/20/35
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/20

SpaceRef staff editor.