Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor

November 8, 2003

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two new regions emerged
today: Region 498 (S03W26) and Region 499 (S17W19). Both of these
regions are small and simple. A 20 degree filament running from
S10W01 to S20W20 faded between 07/2200 UTC and 08/0200 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during
the past 24 hours. A noticeable increase was seen in solar wind
magnetic field and density, beginning around 1000-1200 UTC which
transitioned activity from quiet levels to unsettled levels. The
signatures appear to be consistent with a co-rotating interaction
region which presages the onset of an expected high-speed coronal
hole solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes were
enhanced but below threshold today, and showed a steady downward
trend during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 09-10 November as the
coronal-hole driven disturbance is expected to commence. Mostly
active conditions are expected to prevail on 11 November.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov