Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 May 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (09 May). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 – 3 (10 – 11 May).

III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 May 066
• Predicted 09 May-11 May 068/068/070
• 90 Day Mean 08 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01