Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 953 has rotated off the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 May. Isolated active periods remain possible due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on 10 – 11 May.

III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 May 073
• Predicted 09 May-11 May 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 08 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 011/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 008/008-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/25
• Minor storm 25/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01