Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 08 2202 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 882 (S12W45) continues in a growth phase, and increased in both area and magnetic complexity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare in Region 882.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. Solar wind speed remains elevated, ranging from 500 – 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 09 May. A large recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 10 May. Active periods are expected on 10 May, with minor to major storm periods possible on 11 May.

III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 May 085
• Predicted 09 May-11 May 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 08 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 017/019
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 005/008-008/012-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/40
• Minor storm 01/05/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/50
• Minor storm 05/10/30
• Major-severe storm 01/05/20