Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 May 2003
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today’s activity consisted of a few C-class flares, all from either
Region 348 (S36W90) or Region 349 (S14W99). Both of these regions
have rotated beyond the west limb. The remaining solar active
regions are small, stable, and unimpressive. GOES-12 solar x-ray
imagery continues to show a new region just behind east limb at
about N17. An 11 degree filament near S34W14 disappeared between
2145 UTC and 2224 UTC on 7 May.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a slight but declining chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 348 or Region 349 from behind
the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially at unsettled levels but has been
at active to minor storm levels since 08/0000 UTC and continuing
through the end of the reporting period (08/2100 UTC). The
geomagnetic field continues to be buffeted by a persistent high
speed solar wind stream with velocities in the 700 to 800 km/s range
and Bz values varying between -8 nT to +1 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active. Solar observations indicate an
extended coronal hole structure in the southern hemisphere which is
likely to keep activity enhanced for at least the next three days.
- III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
- Class M 20/15/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 May 101
- Predicted 09 May-11 May 095/095/100
- 90 Day Mean 08 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 024/036
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 020/030
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 020/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/30/30
- Minor storm 35/25/25
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 45/45/45
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10