Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 776 (S06E33)
produced multiple B and C-class flares today. The largest was a C2
x-ray flare that occurred at 08/0625Z. There was some visible
growth seen in sunspot area. Region 775 (N10E21) underwent growth
in two of the satellite sunspots which now appear to be attached to
the dominant central sunspot. Magnetic analysis indicates this
region to have beta-gamma-delta characteristics. Region 772
(S18W58) was limited to minor B-class flare production while showing
a slight growth in sunspot area. A partial halo CME was observed on
LASCO imagery beginning at 08/0512Z which is slow moving and appears
to have an Earth directed component. The source for the activity
appears to be related to a disappearing solar filament just to the
northwest of Region 772. The remaining active regions were
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 775 and 776 both have the potential of
producing isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
There is a slight chance that the effects of the partial halo CME
that occurred today could begin to be felt late on day three (11
July).

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun

• Class M 25/25/25
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Jun 116
• Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 115/115/110
• 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 011/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 006/008-006/008-010/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05