Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jun 2003

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 380 (S15E56)
produced an M4/2n event at 08/1611 UTC. This region has produced
several C-class flares and shown significant growth since yesterday.
Region 375 (N13W18) continues to produce mid to high level C-class
flares and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 375 and 380 have potential for producing an
isolated X-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. This activity seems to be the result of the expected
coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active conditions for the three
days of the forecast period. The continued elevated solar wind
speeds are expected to produce isolated minor storm conditions
during local nighttime.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun

• Class M 60/60/60
• Class X 10/10/10
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Jun 153
• Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 160/155/155
• 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 026/024
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 020/025
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 020/025-020/025-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/40/30
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/45/45
• Minor storm 30/30/30
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10