Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours, and the visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (09 July). An increase to unsettled conditions is expected on day two (10 July), with active conditions possible at high latitudes, due to a recurrent co-rotating interaction region. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (11 July), with isolated minor storm periods possible as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Jul 066
• Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 005/005-008/010-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/15/25
• Minor storm 01/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/25/30
• Minor storm 01/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05