Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jul 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S07E66) has produced three C-class flares and numerous B-class flares. The region is currently a moderate size D-type sunspot group with a simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 963.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet from day one (9 July) through most of day two (10 July). Late on day two, and continuing through day three (11 July), geomagnetic activity is expected to become unsettled with possible active periods in response to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Jul 075
- Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 075/075/075
- 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 005/005-008/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/20/40
- Minor storm 05/10/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/25/45
- Minor storm 05/15/25
- Major-severe storm 01/05/10
