Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 8, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N12W17) produced a
long duration C1.6 event at 08/1618 UTC. There was also a reported
Type IV radio sweep which may be associated with this flare. The
event was optically correlated with the GOES solar x-ray imager
data. Region 786 continues to be the largest group on the disk and
exhibits a magnetic delta configuration. A CME is currently
observed in the LASCO imagery at 08/1922 UTC. Limited data at this
time does not allow for a complete analysis of the source for this
activity. The main trajectory seems to be off the west limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 remains a likely source for an isolated
M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 09-10 July. The increased levels of
activity are expected due to effects from the observed CME’s between
05-07 July, and the possible influence from a coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 11

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

  • Class M 50/50/50
  • Class X 15/15/15
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Jul 110
  • Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 110/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 020/030-020/025-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/40/30
  • Minor storm 25/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.