Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jul 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 08 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 786 (N12W17) produced a
long duration C1.6 event at 08/1618 UTC. There was also a reported
Type IV radio sweep which may be associated with this flare. The
event was optically correlated with the GOES solar x-ray imager
data. Region 786 continues to be the largest group on the disk and
exhibits a magnetic delta configuration. A CME is currently
observed in the LASCO imagery at 08/1922 UTC. Limited data at this
time does not allow for a complete analysis of the source for this
activity. The main trajectory seems to be off the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 remains a likely source for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 09-10 July. The increased levels of
activity are expected due to effects from the observed CME’s between
05-07 July, and the possible influence from a coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 11
July.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 15/15/15
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Jul 110
- Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 110/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/25
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/40/30
- Minor storm 25/20/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10