Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jul 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Several B-class
flares were observed in the last 24 hours. Region 642 (S07E51)
produced the majority of the activity. The largest flare from this
region was a B7/Sf at 08/0017 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

• Class M 01/01/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Jul 082
• Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 085/090/100
• 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 002/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 005/008-005/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05