Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jul 2003

SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar acitivity was low. Region 397 (N12W65) produced
several C-class flares, the highest being a C2.3/Sf at 08/0230Z.
Region 400 (N05W24) produced a C1.5 at 08/0251Z, and Region 402
(S12W58) produced two C-class flares, a C5.2/1f at 08/0730Z and a
C3.2/Sf at 08/1626Z. A large filament in the northwest quadrant
erupted in parts: a 23-degree section (N30W22) early in the period
and a 21-degree section (N38W38) at 08/1500Z. Region 397 decreased
in size and magnetic complexity, to a beta-gamma configuration.
Region 402 grew rapidly in size over the period. No new regions
were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 397 has potential to produce M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period,
with isolated active to minor storm conditions on day three due to
increased wind speeds from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 131
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 012/010-010/010-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/40
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 02/02/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/50
Minor storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/10