Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 08 2212 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the last 24 hours. Region 980 (S08W23) decayed throughout the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds remain elevated but are slowly declining. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (09 January). Conditions should be predominantly quiet for the second and third days (10-11 January)

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Jan 076
• Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 010/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/007-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01