Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 8, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jan 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. There has been a steady
stream of B-class flares with a single C1.0 that occurred 08 Jan at
1957Z. Region 718 (S06E66) remains steady with a low probability
for flare activity. Region 719 (S09E82) was newly numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flare activity is possible from the
regions near the southeast limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels.
Disturbances in the geomagnetic field early on 08 Jan have been
associated with solar wind transients and interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuations.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The solar wind transients
should abate by the end of 08 Jan, and have little impact on the
geomagnetic field for 09 through 11 Jan.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Jan 089
  • Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 090/090/085
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 021/037
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 022/040
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 012/020-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.