Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 852 (S10W04) produced a B3 flare at 1633Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (09-11 February).

III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Feb 074
• Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 075/075/080
• 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01