Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 8, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was a C3.7 flare from Region 733 (S08E67) at 07/2244Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The
heightened activity was due to the effects of a high speed coronal
hole stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has been elevated at
approximately 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible due to the continued effects of a high speed coronal hole
stream throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Feb 108
  • Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 110/115/115
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 019/023
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 018/030
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 012/020-010/012-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/30
  • Minor storm 25/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 15/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.