Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 08 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was a C3.7 flare from Region 733 (S08E67) at 07/2244Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The
heightened activity was due to the effects of a high speed coronal
hole stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has been elevated at
approximately 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible due to the continued effects of a high speed coronal hole
stream throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Feb 108
- Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 110/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 019/023
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 018/030
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 012/020-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/15
- Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/30/30
- Minor storm 25/20/15
- Major-severe storm 15/05/05
