Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 8, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels in the last
minutes of the period. Region 554 (S08E62) produced an M1/Sf event
at 08/2051Z. Multiple B and C-class flares where attributed to this
region during the period. This region has recently rotated onto the
visible solar disk and may have a weak gamma magnetic structure in
the trailing portion of the sunspot cluster, currently analyzed as a
beta group. Region 551 (S06W14) continues to show steady growth in
penumbral coverage and continued counter-clockwise rotation of the
intermediate sunspots was evidenced once again during the interval.
A single lesser B-class flare was the extent of flare activity in
this region today. Spotless active Region 553 (S04W38) managed to
produce a C1 x-ray flare at 08/0452Z. No new regions were numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 551 and 554 have the potential to
produce isolated M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible in the nighttime sectors throughout the

III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb

  • Class M 50/50/50
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Feb 116
  • Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 120/120/115
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/010-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.