Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Feb 2003
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare from newly
numbered Region 285 (S10E75) was the highlight of the period. Just a
single sunspot visible so far in this new region, but limb proximity
is hindering a thorough analysis. Regions 274 (S05W76), 276
(S13W14,) and 278 (N18E26), the largest regions on the visible disk,
exhibited occasional plage fluctuations, but all are in a decay
phase with relatively simple magnetic configurations. New Region 284
(N12W14) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Several regions on the visible disk have potential to produce an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period between 08/1200 – 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
- Class M 35/35/35
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Feb 139
- Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 140/140/140
- 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 008/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 010/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
