Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S10E39) has grown and new region 979 (N07W65) emerged.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low. The development of Region 978 (S10E39 ) and emergence of Region 979 (N07W65) bring an increased possiblity of C-Class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for day 1 and 2, then increase to unsettled levels on day 3 as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Dec 087
• Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 005/002
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05