Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 930 (S05E32) has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours. Region 930 is no longer as magnetically complex and now has a Beta-Gamma configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Transient flow from the CME associated with the X9 event on 05 December was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 08/0400Z. The IMF Bz component ranged between approximately +/- 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues, but is on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0115Z continues, but is also on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far is 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods on 09 December due to CME activity associated with the M6 and X6 flares of 06 December. Expect unsettled to active conditions on 10 – 11 December. The greater than 10 Mev proton event is expected to end late on 09 December. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next 12 hours.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

• Class M 35/35/35
• Class X 10/10/10
• Proton 80/30/05
• PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Dec 096
• Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 014/025
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 025/030
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 040/050-020/025-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/20
• Minor storm 40/10/05
• Major-severe storm 20/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/35/30
• Minor storm 45/20/10
• Major-severe storm 30/10/05