Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Dec 2005
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at 08/1902 UTC from a new region just beyond the east limb near N19E90. Both Regions 826 (S06W80) and 830 (N12W01) produced small B-class flares. New Region 832 (S14W61) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 826 and 830 as well as the new region rotating onto the disk near N19E90.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Dec 090
- Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 085/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 001/000
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 000/000
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 005/007-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01